Lincoln 1863, Truman 1952, Bush 2008

Abraham Lincoln.  A Republican.  A great president.  A man who saved the Union and ended slavery.  He was a man with a steel resolve to prevail and overcome enormous odds.  We learned from him never to tell a lie.

This is the standard historical summary of one of our greatest presidents.  But, in fact, this great leader was almost universally disliked by Americans both south and north of the Mason-Dixon around 1863.  Obviously he was enemy #1 in the South.  But, in the North, too, he was widely condemned.  Most northerners in 1863, while they may not have liked the practice of slavery, they were less concerned about the plight of blacks in America than they were about keeping the Union together.

At the start of the Civil War, the north believed it would be nothing more than a six-month ordeal (sound familiar?).  But, in 1863, the war was in its third year and hundreds of thousands of Americans were dying on the battlefield, in some cases by the tens of thousands in single battles.  The South wind was blowing hard against the Union and there was little sign of victory.  Lincoln was being pressured on all political sides to end the war, to give in, to find a political solution.

Lincoln stood firm against the gale and held steady.  In the early years of the war, his generals failed him, so he replaced them, one after the other.  Then came Grant and Sherman.  These men, by this time, understood that the American Civil War was not the minor six-month dance it was expected to be.  By this time, they knew that, to win this war, the South must be crushed and demoralized.  So, they began to fight for real.  And the tide turned.

Prior to the outbreak of the Civil War Lincoln was seen by many as a simpleton.  He wasn’t refined enough to be an American president.  His oratory skills were limited, as he spoke in simple, short sentences.  He didn’t talk much, didn’t seem to take charge.

Now, we look back at Lincoln as a hero.  We see him as an example of leadership.  We see him as a great man of wisdom, honesty, and internal strength.  We see him as one of our greatest presidents.  If we could go back and tell the average American in 1863 this, they would not believe it.  Not this backwoods simpleton Abe Lincoln!

Harry S. Truman.  A Democrat.  A good and honest man.  The buck stopped at his desk and no where else.  Here was a man who never aspired to be president and yet there he was.  And, most historians agree, he passed the test with flying colors.  Considered by most to be a good president.  Considered by many to be a great one.

Yet, in 1952 Harry S. Truman’s approval rating, by the same poll that measures GW Bush’s approval rating today, was a dismal 22%.  In fact that is the lowest presidential approval rating on record since this type of polling began in the 1930′s.

In 1952, the United States was stuck in a stalemate in Korea.  Tens of thousands of Americans were losing their lives over there, and for what?  Republicans and the American populace had turned against this war with no end.  He had other problems:  Truman fired Douglas MacArther, an unpopular move.  And, there was a scandal with the IRS.

Eisenhower took office in 1953 on an anti-war theme and the rest is history.  But, generations removed, something happened.  Somehow, history unfolded.  And, as we looked back with the unobstructed vision of objectivity, we analyzed Harry Truman’s performance fairly.  And, we found a great leader.  Flaws, yes.  But, a great leader nevertheless.  He did good things in office.  And, he made very difficult decisions with conviction–decisions that have often been vindicted by the unfolding events of history after his presidency.  His vision, which couldn’t be assessed in real-time, became clear in the years and decades later.

What I am suggesting here is not that George W. Bush will be remembered a generation from now as a great president despite his terrible approval ratings now.  No, what I am suggesting is that, depending on how events unfold over the coming years and decades, it is possible. 

I can almost hear the gasps and groans as I write this.  But, if we had the chance to ask the average American in 1952 whether or not they thought Truman would one day be considered a great president, we would have been greeted with similar gasps and groans.  No way.  But, it happened.  Same with Lincoln.

Consider this:  What if Iraq continues on its apparent path to democracy and prosperity?  What if that democracy and prosperity in Iraq does lead to a gradual ground-shift in Middle Eastern culture and politics, away from theocratic and dictatorial rule and gradually towards Democracy?  What happens when people begin to give credit to GW Bush for the work he has done to save lives in Africa?  What happens when the economy recovers from the current troubles, as it always does in a cyclical capitalist system?  What happens, when we are a generation removed from the divisive politics of today and can look back at George W. Bush with an objective point of view?

George W. Bush may not be remembered in 50 years as a great president.  But, I believe history will be kinder to him than most of us think at the present time.  And, I don’t write this out of some kind of allegience or support for Bush.  I voted for Gore in 2000 and I haven’t been thrilled with GW.  However, I do believe he is a decent man who has tried to make the right decisions for his country, wrong or right.  We’ll have to wait and see how the events unfold to really know the wisdom of his decisions.

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