Race-Based Voting? It Cuts Both Ways
Less than three days to election day. I’ve already voted in my state’s early voting, but I’ve been watching the developments closely. So, the polls seem to indicate Obama holding on to a lead, but there are signs of McCain possibly closing the gap.
Perhaps a bigger question is this? Are the polls accurate? And, will there be a Bradley Effect?
The Bradley Effect is a phenomenon that has happened on occasion with a black vs. white candidate. The polls show a certain level of support for the black candidate, but the election results turn out more favorably than expected for the white candidate. Now, it is very important to point out that not all political races between black and white candidates have this effect. And, there was something similar to a Bradley effect in 2004 when most polls indicated John Kerry had a slight lead going into the election, but he lost the popular and the electoral vote to George Bush. So, the Bradley Effect may not really be based on race. The racial element in this effect may be just a coincidence, and the real reason may have to do with the polling methods.
But, here is what I’m afraid of: If John McCain manages to win this election, I guarantee that the race card is going to come out in a big way from the far left. People are going to start saying that racism was the difference in the election. I have already seen many people make the claim that, if one is white and chooses not to vote for Obama, then said person must be racist. Which, of course, for most of us is not only rediculous, but insulting.
I think the number of white voters who would not consider voting for Obama for the sole reason that he is half black is certainly under 3% of the total white voting population, and probably under 1%. And, yet, that element certainly is there, and it will certainly be a topic of discussion if McCain wins by a very small margin.
On the other hand, we are seeing over 90% of the black population supporting Obama. Clearly a certain percentage of black Americans will be voting for Obama for no other reason than the fact that he is African American. Logically, I belive that the percentage of black voters voting this way is likely to be somewhere along the lines of 10% to 20%.
This is not a double-standard. There are more compelling reasons for African Americans to vote this way than for White Americans. Obama’s rise to this level is historic, and a long time coming. The urge to vote this way for African Americans is probably significant. And, while I think this type of vote is uninformed, I don’t think it is ill-intentioned or malicious. But, it certainly exists.
But, if McCain wins, something tells me that the media, while they probably will play up the race-based vote on the white side, will probably not do their due dilligence and analyze the counter-acting race-based vote on the black side. This could lead to an embarrasing public discource with, not surprisingly, the media stoking the flames with only part of the picture.
I decided to write on this topic after reading an article posted on MSN.com today about Southern Blacks and their take on the election. In that article was this gem of a quote from a black man in the south.
“Some people say to me ‘You have to vote for Obama. This is history. Don’t you want to be a part of history?’”
“But Dr. Martin Luther King taught us to judge a person on the content of their character, not on the color of their skin,” said Smart. “If we vote for him because he’s black, isn’t that going backward?”
The first part of the quote seems to provide some evidence of the idea that many African Americans will be voting for Obama on the basis of his race. The second part of the quote shows the moral question that it presents and what should be the correct conclusion of all voters, black or white.
November 6, 2008 at 2:46 am
There is another e;ement to race-based voting that hasn’t been discussed. That is the tendacy for many white voters to vote for Barack because he is black. And it is more than “white guilt” that brings this about.
Many people realize that electing a black person will be an historic event, one that doesn’t wipe the slate clean but paints a much better picture. It will heal much of the scars and strenghten the country. It will help create a better image for the US and give it more moral clarity on the world stage.
Thus many whites will vote for Barack mostly because of the pigmentation of his skin. Perhaps more will vote for him on that basis than will vote against him. No way to know. But surely both will come about.
November 7, 2008 at 9:16 am
thewiz,
Excellent point. And, in fact, on election night CNN proved you are correct. They had a stat for every demographic cross-section. At one point during the election, they looked at the voting breakdown for people who admitted that the race of the candidate was a major factor in their decision. They found that 55% of white voters who considered race to be a major factor in their decision voted for Barack Obama! The percentage was much higher for black Americans. But, it dispelled the myth that race-based voting would work in McCain’s favor. And, it actually showed that the race-based voting element worked in Obama’s favor even among white voters.
What you are saying about the indirect benefits of electing a black president is interesting, and I believe there is some truth to that. I think one positive thing that will come out of Obama’s election is that many black Americans will finally feel like Americans, and many will finally feel proud to be Americans. That’s a great thing. The flip side is that it will be harder for so-called disinfranchised groups to get away with blaming their problems on the percieved inequities in America. And Obama made that point clear in the first line of his speach.